With less than a fortnight until polls close at 12:00 noon, Saturday 11 October, the story of this election may not be the candidates at all—it may be the voters who didn’t turn up last time.

In conversations across Nawton, Dinsdale, Frankton, Whitiora and beyond, I keep hearing the same thing: “We didn’t vote last time, but we’re paying attention now.” If that feeling becomes action, the maths gets interesting fast. Using the scenario outlined in recent analysis: if 70% of last election’s non-voters show up and half of last time’s voters stay home, turnout jumps to roughly 64.2%. That means about 77% of ballots would be from ‘new’ voters and only 23% from repeat voters.

Under STV, that matters twice—first for first-preferences and then for transfers. When the centre of gravity shifts toward new voters, late momentum and practical, basics-first messages tend to do well. Incumbents who are broadly liked will still make it; marginal incumbents are the ones who risk falling short as transfers drift toward credible alternatives.

What that could mean in West Ward

The same analysis suggests West currently has a recognised top tier—names like Angela O’Leary, Geoff Taylor, Sarah Thomson—and then a crowded pack fighting for the remaining seats. With a late surge of new voters, the “most likely gainers” list tightens around Mesh Macdonald and Nidhita Gosai, with Graeme Mead as a live spoiler for the final spot. In that model, the last seat becomes a three-way toss-up with Louise Hutt and Emma Pike still very much in the frame.

That’s not gospel—it’s a weather report. But it’s a useful one. It tells us two things:

1. This race is still open. If 3 in 4 ballots are from people who didn’t vote last time, the composition of the Council can change without drama—just with pens and paper.
2. Transfers will crown the last two seats. Your second, third, fourth choices matter. If
   you want a practical Council, rank practical people all the way down.

Where do I fit? I’m running as a principled independent with a simple promise: fix the basics, publish the numbers, stop exporting local wealth. If new voters show up in the volumes we’re discussing, a well-documented, no-nonsense platform like mine is exactly what STV was built to recognise through transfers.

What could still derail frontrunners (and why it shouldn’t)

Another part of the pre-election brief was a list of last-minute hazards that can sink
campaigns. None of this is gossip; it’s the rulebook:

• Promoter-statement slip-ups on flyers, websites or social posts (the authorisation line).
• Signage breaches—wrong size, wrong place, wrong timing.
• Using Council resources to campaign.
• Interfering with ballots in rest homes/hospitals.
• Treating (inducements), dodgy donation practices, or misleading endorsements.
• And of course, personal conduct that cuts across the values we expect from civic leaders.

I’m not interested in “gotcha” politics. I raise these risks so every candidate meets the same standard—and so voters know what to look for. We are all temporary guardians of public trust. If I’m elected, I want to win because you believed the plan, not because someone else tripped on a technicality.

My plan, briefly

• Debt discipline with transparency: Publish a plain-English dashboard on rates, debt, and project sequencing so you can see what’s funded, what’s deferred, and why.
• Basics before nice-to-haves: Safe streets, maintained footpaths, working lights, reliable stormwater, and cones gone when the work is done.
• “Hamilton Bank” concept for consultation: Explore a community-owned banking vehicle to keep more mortgage interest circulating locally, subject to Reserve Bank and prudential settings, with strong governance and Treaty partnership principles.
• Fairness on fares and fees: Smarter user-pays for visitors where practical, while keeping everyday access affordable for residents (libraries, buses, pools).
• Do the small things right: Quick fixes that make neighbourhoods more livable— crossings, lighting, potholes, tree trimming—because dignity lives in the details.

This isn’t ideology; it’s operations. It’s how you run a city that people can afford to live in
and be proud of.

How to use your STV ballot to get the Council you want

1. Rank as many candidates as you can support. Don’t stop at one or two—your transfer might decide the sixth West seat.
2. Think “team of 14,” not just favourites. You’re hiring a Council, not a solo act.
   Balance matters—skills, temperament, and a bias for getting things done.
3. Reward specifics. If a candidate shows you numbers, timelines, and trade-offs, they’re
   already respecting you.

A word to new voters

If you didn’t vote last time and you’re thinking about it now, this is your election. A turnout near 64% would be a civic reset delivered quietly, legally, and powerfully. It would say: we want value for money, honest books, and basics done well—without the drama. I’m asking for your early ranking on the West ballot because that’s the work I’m built to do.

A word to long-time voters

Thank you for showing up, cycle after cycle. If half of your cohort sits this one out—as the scenario imagines—your ballot becomes even more valuable. Please use all the power STV gives you: rank the practical doers all the way down. If you’ve watched me push for dashboards, debt discipline, and small fixes that actually get finished, give me a good number on your paper. I’ll repay that trust with clear reporting and fewer surprises.

Elections are not Twitter threads. They are procurement processes for public service. If we keep our heads, follow the rules, and rank the people prepared to do the unglamorous work, Hamilton’s West can send six councillors to the table ready on day one.

I’m Roderick J. Young, standing for West Ward. If you want fair, predictable rates, disciplined debt, and a Council that quietly fixes things instead of auditioning for social media, rank me early—and keep ranking others you trust. That’s how we build a Council that matches the commonsense of the people it serves.

Roderick J. Young, BSc, LLB
Independent Candidate – Hamilton West
Contact: roderickjy@gmail.com