June 2024 has been a busy month for the issues of climate change adaptation and managed retreat.
The controversial Takutai Kāpiti Coastal Advisory Panel has now published its report.
The Report of the Independent Coastal Advisory Panel favoured the “Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning” approach and recommended that a Kāpiti Coastal Adaptation Plan be put in place. The report also featured this statement from the Coastal Advisory Panel Chair and former Prime Minister Jim Bolger…
“One of the foremost concerns we heard revolves around the projected rise in sea levels and its potential impact on private homes. It is understandable that these concerns weigh heavily, as a family’s home often represents their most significant asset. However, it is not solely about safeguarding personal homes; the accessibility of homes and services through roads and sewerage systems is equally crucial. In essence, the threat of coastal inundation resulting from sea level rise poses significant risks to individuals and communities alike.
During our engagement with the community, the CAP encountered differing viewpoints, including some who disputed the scientific consensus and downplayed the risks posed to property and wellbeing. These dissenting voices often challenged the scientific basis; however, we have focussed on reaching out to the community through various channels to understand their concerns. Our core responsibility has, I believe, remained intact—to gather community input comprehensively and reflect their perspectives in our report to the Council. Now, it’s up to the Council to review our findings and use as a basis to get wide agreement on appropriate measures.”
Rt Hon James Bolger, ONZ, PC in the Preface of the Takutai Kāpiti Coastal Hazard Adaptation Project: Report of the Independent Coastal Advisory Panel
Radio New Zealand ran two articles on the Kāpiti CAP report and the community opposition. These articles noted the history of these local disputes regarding the impacts of climate change modelling…
“The Takutai Kāpiti report was commissioned in 2021 after the council tried to put erosion warnings on LIMs (land information memorandums for properties) in 2012.
It was taken to court twice by affected residents, who said the science relied on estimates of sea level rise and coastal erosion that were far too extreme, and the information was misleading. The courts sided with the council.
But a year later, an independent panel found the science was not robust enough, and the information was removed from LIMS.”
RNZ, Report reveals climate change risks in Kāpiti, 16 June 2024
Towards the end of May 2024, the government put out a call for public submissions for Finance and Expenditure Committee’s Inquiry into climate adaptation. Giving the public less than a month to engage with this consultation round, the submissions closed on the 16th of June 2024. Individuals and groups involved with Kāpiti issues were interviewed on Reality Check Radio including Kāpiti Lawyer Sean Rush, Coastal Ratepayers United spokeswomen Salima Padamsey, as well as Kāpiti C.A.L.M. spokeswomen Tanya Lees and Carolyn Evans. The people of Kāpiti are at the forefront of opposing these climate change adaptation agendas. The rest of New Zealand should pay attention to what has been happening in Kāpiti as these agendas are being positioned to impact more of the country.
Following the release of the Report of the Independent Coastal Advisory Panel there was a Kāpiti Coast District Council meeting where people from the community expressed their concerns with the extreme climate change models, the scientific basis of the report, and how the public consultation was conducted. Reality Check Radio re-interviewed Kāpiti C.A.L.M. spokeswomen Tanya Lees and Carolyn Evans after that council meeting.
Taituarā (formally known as the New Zealand Society of Local Government Managers) is lobbying the government for greater powers for conducting managed retreat. The submission of Taituarā to the Inquiry into climate adaptation included the following statements…
“Insurance retreat is inevitable. Members will probably have seen media reports of individual property owners and small groups of property owners being unable to insure properties in flood-prone areas/areas assessed as a future flood risk…
…Decision-makers needs stronger and clearer powers to acquire land. Retreat is one of the core tools needed to support adaptation and fundamental to retreat is the notion that the landowner surrenders the right to use or occupy the land (with compensation usually). The power to acquire land is therefore a key element of retreat…
…Governments, central and local, need clearer stated powers to acquire land for retreat purposes. The Public Works Act 1981 governs the acquisition of land by public agencies for public works which a local authority are defined as: “a work constructed or intended to be constructed by or under the control of a local authority, or for the time being under the control of a local authority”. It is arguable that the acquisition of land to remove it from use to prevent development is actually empowered under this Act.” Taituarā – Local Government Professionals Aotearoa, Submission to the Inquiry into Climate Adaptation, June 2024
If people are not moved off their land due to difficulties getting insurance or compulsory land acquisition, the bureaucrats (represented by Taituarā) are looking to use “red zone” policies to deprive remaining “holdouts” of affordable services. The “holdouts” will likely be threatened with excessively expensive charges for core services and/or have those core services disconnected.
“This is a practical issue that has been encountered in other circumstances such as the so-called ‘red zones’ after the Canterbury earthquakes. As areas subject to managed retreat are vacated and only the ‘holdouts’ are left the cost of continuing to provide infrastructure to those properties increases and the risks involved in providing services increases (for example roads being washed out, utility lines damaged etc).
The cost of these services is as much a market signal as the cost and availability of insurance or the terms and availability of finance. Decisions to stay in place should be made cognisant of all of the costs and risks of such a decision – to do otherwise is to expect a subsidy from other ratepayers or customers.
Local authorities and other infrastructure providers should be permitted to use tools such as full cost recovery in these instances. There is some merit in allowing for withdrawal of service provided that sufficient notice is given to the landowner to enable them to put alternatives in place. Of course these options should be clearly signalled as potential consequences during the engagement phases so landowners are clear. There are additional consequences – for example a property needs road access as a condition of getting certificate of title.” Taituarā – Local Government Professionals Aotearoa, Submission to the Inquiry into Climate Adaptation, June 2024
Computer models are central to most of these issues. Computer models will be used determine future flood risk and put land titles in hazard zones. In some cases these modelled risks will be used to increase insurance costs or make property uninsurable. The computer models will likely be used by bureaucrats to trigger “managed retreat” policies from compulsory land acquisition by the authorities to the removal of core services. When climate change is involved, extreme and unrealistic computer model scenarios are often used. RCP8.5 is one of those extreme scenarios and CityWatch NZ has recently published an explainer article on RCP8.5.
